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Ahmadinejad has turned the Iranian economy upside down, making sure that advantages flow to the lower class. His government has increased state wages and pensions and has made health insurance free for 22 million people. He derides economists who blame him for high inflation and unemployment, saying that they are tied to the higher classes and that his goal is to “spread justice.” …

 

His leading challenger is Mousavi, an urbane, soft-spoken architect who was prime minister from 1981 to 1989. Though out of power for two decades, Mousavi is in many ways the Iranian establishment`s candidate. He represents an older generation of Islamic clergy and politicians who fought side by side with the leader of the 1979 revolution, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, but whose power and positions have gradually been stripped away by Ahmadinejad and his associates.

There`s worry and anger about cheating and unfair campaigning. Yesterday, the state-run Iranian TV gave Ahmadinejad twenty minutes of free air time for a speech, while offering one minute each to his three rivals. …

 

But there`s an uneasy feeling that, especially if the vote is close, one side or the other won`t accept the results. Perhaps the greatest danger comes from the angry, inflamed supporters of Ahmadinejad, though a highly informed analyst says that Iran`s Leader, Ali Khamenei, will be able to control the backers of Ahmadinejad in the event of a Mousavi victory. But there`s no question that Iran is highly divided, and when the results are announced–probably Saturday morning–there will be a few days of tension before it`s clear how the voters on the losing side react. …

 

It`s even likely that Khamenei may have decided that Ahmadinejad has served his purpose, and that a more acceptable, more moderate president would better serve Iran`s broader interests. “When Bush was president, perhaps Iran needed a barking dog to response to the barking dog in Washington,” says one Iranian observer. “But now, with Obama, it“

s different.”

Many months ago I was told that Khamenei was gravely concerned about the future of the regime, that he had concluded that there was so much hatred by so many people that it was impossible to continue to govern by repression, and that Ahmadinezhad’s aggressive domestic and foreign policy threatened everything that had been constructed over the course of the past thirty years. The people telling me these things were friends of Mousavi, and they accurately predicted that Mousavi was going to run, and that he would have surprising public support, something I would not have expected. They also said that Khamenei had encouraged Mousavi to run, precisely because he, the Supreme Leader, was prepared to grant greater freedom to the Iranian people and to normalize relations with the West.

 

It sounded unlikely to me, but then Khamenei is gravely ill and reportedly uses large quantities of opium to ease the pain of an incurable cancer.  …

 

One possible indicator that Khamenei favors Mousavi is the absence of the security forces in the streets of Tehran.  Normally, demonstrators chanting “Death to the regime of lies” would be clubbed and beaten on the spot. That is not happening these days. …

 

I think there’s a good chance of violence, starting Friday night. I don’t think either side is likely to take defeat gracefully. At that point, those security forces who have been so notably absent in recent days will almost certainly reappear, and attempt to reimpose “order” of the sort the demonstrations have been aimed against. The security forces have the guns, the chains, and the torture cells on their side. In a showdown in the streets, the anti-regime forces have only numbers. But that might be enough. Gorbachev had the KGB on his side, lest we forget.  And yet, Soviet Communism ended feebly.

In a statement on the Guards` Web site, Javani drew parallels between Mousavi`s campaign and the velvet revolution that led to the 1989 ouster of the communist government in then-Czechoslovakia, saying some extremist (reformist) groups, have designed a colorful revolution … using a specific color for the first time in an election.

Javani called it a sign of kicking off a velvet revolution project in the presidential elections, and vowed any attempt for velvet revolution will be nipped in the bud. It also accused the reformists of planning to claim vote rigging and provoke street violence if Mousavi loses.

As prime minister throughout the Iran-Iraq War, he sought to ease Iran’s international isolation; however, he did this without seeking to compromise the Islamic Republic’s fundamental policy positions. Behind Mousavi’s soft-spoken exterior, he is a fervent revolutionary who purged the universities of Western-educated intellectuals and argued for an invasion of Israel. As president, Mousavi would be the face of the regime. He would not delight in antagonism as Ahmadinejad does, but he would not make the substantive changes to or compromises on policy that any real rapprochement will require. Domestically, he has painted himself as a reformer, promising, for example, to abolish the morality police that harass women showing too much hair and young men dressing in too Western a fashion. But, he really would have no control over security matters and so he would face widespread disgruntlement quickly. We would also see a resurgence of the vigilante groups (I wrote my first book about this phenomenon) who, in a manner analogous to Brown Shirts’, would rough up opponents to prevent implementation of policies of which their hardline bosses disapprove.

Even the so-called moderate candidates, such as Mr Mousavi and former president Mohammed Khatami (who has now withdrawn from the contest), have been closely associated with some of the darker episodes in recent Iranian history. As prime minister in the 1980s, Mr Mousavi was a key ally of Ayatollah Khomeini, and actively endorsed his virulent hostility towards the West. It was under Mr Mousavi, for example, that Iran masterminded the hostage crisis in Lebanon, which resulted in Terry Waite and John McCarthy being held in captivity for five years.

 

It was during Mr Khatami`s two-term presidency that Iran made the most significant work on developing its atom bomb. This was the period when key nuclear installations, such as the underground uranium enrichment complex at Natanz, were constructed under strict secrecy. Tehran only stopped work on its military nuclear programme following the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, which persuaded Mr Khatami that Iran might be next on Washington`s hit list if it persisted with attempts to build a nuclear bomb. …

 

It doesn`t matter who wins this election, the bottom line is that it is highly unlikely it will bring about a significant change on the nuclear front,” says a senior British official, who is closely involved with the Iran negotiations. “Pursuing the nuclear programme is an article of faith for the regime, and not even a change of leader is going to alter that.”

If that is the case then the West cannot afford to waste any more time deliberating over how to resolve the nuclear crisis, when Iran is so close to having sufficient quantities of fissile material to build a nuclear warhead.

 

In the past, western policymakers have all too often clung to the hope that relations might improve if only they could establish a dialogue with the moderates. But as this election, and all the other false dawns of the past 30 years have demonstrated, there is little that distinguishes Iran`s moderates from its Islamic revolutionaries.

Many argue that Israeli military action will cause Iranians to rally in support of the mullah`s regime and plunge the region into political chaos. To the contrary, a strike accompanied by effective public diplomacy could well turn Iran`s diverse population against an oppressive regime. Most of the Arab world`s leaders would welcome Israel solving the Iran nuclear problem, although they certainly won`t say so publicly and will rhetorically embrace Iran if Israel strikes. But rhetoric from its Arab neighbors is the only quantum of solace Iran will get.