Ryktene om en multipolar verden er sterkt overdrevne, ifølge Josef Joffe i Die Zeit.
Anti-amerikanismen er utbredt i Tyskland. Et unntak er Josef Joffe, redaktør i den ledende ukeavisen Die Zeit. I siste utgave av Foreign Affairs skriver han om de falske profeter som med jevne mellomrom prediker USAs nedgang og fall. Han kaller USA The Default Power – den verdenssamfunnet alltid må ty til fordi ingen andre kan eller vil fylle dens rolle som leverandør av globale kollektive goder.
Temaet og mange av argumentene gjenkjennes fra Joffes utmerkede bok Uberpower fra 2006.
Joffes er flink til å spissformulere seg. Artikkelen er tilgjengelig på nett (men du må registerer deg). Jeg tillater meg noen utdrag, med egne uthevinger:
Om Kina:
The United States also comes out ahead among major powers in terms of per capita income, with $47,000 per inhabitant. It is followed by France and Germany (both in the $44,000 range), Japan ($38,000), Russia ($11,000), China ($2,900), and India ($1,000). It is not clear how China could soon best the United States in this regard, which has a per capita income that is 7.5 times as large as China’s. A country becomes neither rich nor powerful by adding up 1.3 billion very poor people — unless its riches are falsely measured by current account surpluses. (…)
Taking a high-end estimate of Chinese growth — an annual rate of ten percent — China’s economy would double every seven years, overtaking current U.S. GDP as early as 2015 and leaving the United States in the dust seven years later. But whatever the tipping point, this calculation suggests that China will emerge as number one. Alas, global standing is not measured by the low prices of nontradable goods, such as haircuts, bootlegged software, and government services. Think instead about advanced technology, energy, raw materials, and the cost of higher education in the West. (…)
Essentially, China will grow old before becoming rich, as Mark Haas, a professor of political science at Duquesne University, has noted. According to Goldman Sachs, by 2050 the Chinese economy will long have overtaken the U.S. economy, with a GDP of $45 trillion, compared with the United States’ $35 trillion. But by then, the median age in the United States will be the lowest of any of the world’s large powers, except India. The United States’ working-age population will have grown by about 30 percent, whereas China’s will have dropped by three percent.
Om USAs særegne rolle:
Driven by selfish purposes, powers such as Russia and China cannot be what the United States was at its best in the twentieth century: a state that pursued its own interests by also serving those of others and thus created global demand for the benefits it provided. It is neither altruism nor egotism but enlightened self-interest that breeds influence. Driven by selfish purposes, powers such as Russia and China cannot be what the United States was at its best in the twentieth century: a state that pursued its own interests by also serving those of others and thus created global demand for the benefits it provided. It is neither altruism nor egotism but enlightened self-interest that breeds influence. (…)
And yet, for all the anti-Americanism that has coursed through western Europe, the Islamic world, and Latin America in recent years, the United States has remained the world’s dominant power. When it adopted a hands-off policy toward the Arab-Israeli conflict in the early years of the Bush administration, no other state could fill the vacuum. And when it decided to reengage in the peace process in Annapolis in 2007, everybody showed up; no other government could have mustered that much convening power. Nor could any other nation have harnessed the global coalition that has been fighting the Taliban in Afghanistan. The six-party talks with North Korea were orchestrated by the United States; on the other hand, the three-party talks with Iran — led by France, Germany, and the United Kingdom — could not put a stop to Iran’s nuclear ambitions. The moral is that either the United States takes care of the heavy lifting or nobody does. And this is the concise definition of a default power. (…)
Dreams of Asia Rising must pay respect to a strategic reality centered on the United States as the underwriter of regional security. Whether Vietnam or Japan, South Korea or Australia — all of Asia counts on the United States to keep China on its best behavior and Japan from going nuclear. (…)
A final point to ponder: Who would actually want to live in a world dominated by China, India, Japan, Russia, or even Europe, which for all its enormous appeal cannot take care of its own backyard? Not even those who have been trading in glee and gloom decade after decade would prefer any of them to take over as housekeeper of the world.
Drømmeoverskrift, Jan Arild?