Tweet

 Skriv ut utskriftsvennlig side

Verdensbank-ekspert går ut mot dem som ønsker seg økonomisk nedgang for å stoppe global oppvarming.

Gordon Hughes, som er medforfatter til Verdensbankens ferske rapport om tilpasning til den globale oppvarmingen, skriver hos Sp!ked at tilpasning er mye bedre enn store utslippskutt. Noen highlights:

All of the headlines prompted by the World Bank report have focused on the large numbers – a cost of $75billion to $100billion per year for adaptation to climate change in developing countries up to year 2050. But the report itself tells a rather more nuanced story. Expressed as a proportion of gross domestic product (GDP), the cost of adaptation in developing countries is roughly 0.2 per cent of GDP per year in the period 2010-19, falling to about 0.1 per cent of GDP in 2040-2049. (…)

The suggestion that a planned recession for the next decade is required to address climate change is simply absurd. On reasonable assumptions the total cost of the recent recession in the world economy is greater than the total cost of adaptation for the next 40 years, even on the basis that we get back to pre-recession growth rates by 2011. Far from shrinking the economy, adaptation can be minimised by faster – rather than slower – economic growth and development since many of the costs are fixed. All that is required is the adoption of some reasonably sensible and fairly modest policies, rather than ill-conceived and intemperate assertions about how everything has to change. (…)

Managing a transition to lower emissions over a longer period is the better option as it allows for the development of more cost-effective technologies and provides an opportunity to collect better information on the scale and consequences of climate change. The fact that adaptation to climate change over the next 40 years is likely to be relatively inexpensive strengthens the case for avoiding costly remedies that are driven by arbitrary targets rather than a proper assessment of the alternatives.